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England","name":"SONIA (tracks Bank Rate)","current":3.9842,"year_ago":3.9694,"change":0.014800000000000146,"as_of":"2026-11-09"},{"bank":"Swiss National Bank","name":"3-month interbank","current":-0.041,"year_ago":-0.0596968181818182,"change":0.018696818181818196,"as_of":"2026-09-01"},{"bank":"Bank of Japan","name":"Overnight call rate","current":1.043,"year_ago":0.477,"change":0.566,"as_of":"2026-09-01"},{"bank":"PBoC (China)","name":"3-month interbank","current":1.49,"year_ago":1.66,"change":-0.16999999999999993,"as_of":"2026-08-01"}],"state":{"summary":"NEUTRAL liquidity · 2.68% real 10-year (high) · NORMAL curve · NORMAL credit. The Fed is neither adding nor draining liquidity. The 2-year above fed funds says the market expects rates to stay high or rise, not fall.","lines":[{"label":"Liquidity","text":"Fed balance sheet -0.0%/yr over 13 weeks (neutral). Net liquidity (less the Treasury's cash account and reverse repo) fell $6bn to $5.81T. M2 is growing 6.0% annualized."},{"label":"The Fed","text":"Fed funds 3.88%; the 2-year at 4.56% is +68 bp from it, so the market is pricing hikes or a long hold."},{"label":"Real rates","text":"10-year 4.88% less 2.20% breakevens = 2.68% real. Above the 1.5% line this page uses for high real rates."},{"label":"Curve","text":"10s2s +25 bp, 10s3m +68 bp (normal)."},{"label":"Credit","text":"High-yield spread 334 bp (+64 bp over 13 weeks), normal."},{"label":"Inflation","text":"10-year breakevens 2.20%, near the 2% target. WTI $99.64, +61% y/y, the main upside risk to the rate path."},{"label":"Stablecoin plumbing","text":"Stablecoin Stability Index 22.5, calm (higher = more stress)."},{"label":"What would change this","text":"The balance sheet trend crossing ±3%/yr (now -0.0%); the 2-year crossing fed funds (now +68 bp); 10s2s falling below −10 bp (now +25 bp); high-yield spreads leaving 3–8% (now 3.34%)."}]},"indexes":{"imx":{"level":538.93,"status":"active","as_of":"2026-11-09","change_dod_pct":0.73,"stablecoin_mcap_usd":291701123347.6912},"psi":{"level":22.5,"band":"calm","as_of":"2026-11-11","change_dod":-0.6,"stale":false}}}